Here’s my prediction for the presidential election:
I’m aware that a lot of pundits are calling for a huge electoral college win for Obama, but I’m still worried that certain segments of the population are not yet ready to vote for a candidate like Barack.
I think Obama wins all the states that voted for Kerry in 2004, and picks up three states that Kerry didn’t: Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Obama has a very good chance to win in Virginia. I live right next to the Northern Virginia area, and I can tell you that Obama’s get out the vote effort has been huge there. The northern part of Virginia has a huge “transplanted” population from northern states that is quite comfortable with voting for a Democrat.
And Virginia is a state that, after all, elected a black governor (Doug Wilder) back in 1989, and currently has a Democratic governor (Tim Kaine), and one Democratic Senator (Jim Webb). Ex-governor Mark Warner, a Democrat who’s running for Virginia’s other Senate seat, will cruise to an easy win. Obama may ride on Warner’s coattails… we’ll see. But I expect a 1 point win by McCain in this state.
Florida could get dicey. The combination of an energized black vote, an increased share of the Hispanic vote, and young voters, could bode well for Obama. He’ll lose some of the older white vote that traditionally went to the Dems. It’ll be close. I can see a 1-2 point win for McCain. The huge voter turnout will be a real test of the ability of Florida to count votes correctly.
Black voter turnout will be key for Obama in Ohio. A lot of black folks there are still angry over perceived voting irregularities in the state during the 2004 election. They are very energized to make a statement with their votes this year.
Ohio is a state where the presence of Sarah Palin makes a difference. Say what you will about her, she does energize the Republican base. If McCain loses here, failure of the base to come out might be a factor.
I understand that North Carolina is a toss-up state, but I’m hard pressed to see how this southern state going Democratic. The key here will be young (30 years-old-and-under) voters. If they come out in good numbers, they will be the tipping point that gives Obama a win.
A lot of my reading indicates that Georgia is a potential upset state, due to the black vote and the young vote. And as with both Virginia and North Carolina, the state has a lot moderate transplanted voters from the North. But this is longshot.
Will an enthusiasm deficit on the part of McCain supporters be a problem for Republicans, especially west of the Mississippi, if Obama gets off to a god start? That will be something to look for.
The bottom line for the McCain campaign is, it MUST win Florida and Ohio and Virginia. If Obama wins any of those three states, it’s over for McCain, and the media could call the election for Obama before midnight.